American Idol - Weeks 4 and 5

I've gone 0-2 in picking the losers so far since the top 12 started. And only 2 for 6 in picking the bottom three. Kristi Lee was my pick to leave both the top 12 and top 11. Instead, David Hernandez left last week and Overmyer left this week. They were NOT in my bottom three for either week. Hernandez could sing, even if he did overdo it from time to time and Overmyer was nothing if not for a little different. We won't get anything different or better out of Kristi Lee, Michael Johns, Brooke White, Castro, Ramiele, basically any of them. I had it as a three horse race between Cook, Carly, and David Archuleta, but since Carly was in the bottom three this week, it's evident that no one is safe.

Something seems fishy. It is unlikely, at best, that someone would be the last person to stay three weeks running, especially when the bottom three have been different every week! I've read some articles purporting various conspiracy theories. The two most prevalent: David H was let into the top 12 because of his talent, but then was kicked off because of his past; Overmyer was kicked off just before the top 10 because they (the AI producers) didn't want her on the tour. Both of these are plausible, and I think maybe explain what I see as people in the middle of the pack getting kicked off or ending up in the bottom three.

New Style?
My power poll worked well during the Top 24. Even if I started over after the top 12, I still only would have predicted Kristi Lee in the bottom three. We'll see, I'll start keeping track both using the rankings in the top 24 and a new ranking just using the top 12 ratings.

No predictions, just the facts

Picking the losers (top 12):
0 for 2 0%
bottom three: 2 for 6 33%

Picking the losers (overall):
8 for 14 57%
bottom three: 15 for 22 68%

AI Season 7 - paired to the top 12

All in all, not too terribly surprising. I called Kady and Asia'h getting voted off, and it wasn't hard to see that Luke M. should be getting kicked off. The spot that I struggled the most was between Chiekieze and Danny. What's most surprising is that I'm disappointed with Danny leaving the show. He was a little over the top, but the sass and back talking he gave to Simon was a little entertaining. He wasn't a bad singer, either. Chiekieze advanced based on the strength of Week 2's performance.

I've got Carly as the overall favorite (so she gets tagged on posts from now on). She's a good enough singer that she'll give above-average performances every week, no matter the genre and she'll really connect with a song every couple of weeks or so (as she did with Crazy on You). David A. is the favorite for the boys, but David Cook is very close behind. Michael Johns bumped up three spots amongst the boys. No one really fell all that much and no one really got hosed.

It will be interesting to see how the top 12 pan out. I'm excited that the girls will be performing with the boys. The general thought is that the boys are stronger than the girls and I think that will be very evident next week. Looks like one person will be kicked off next week. Kristi Lee Cook needs to have a good performance, I think she's in trouble.

Picking the losers:
8 for 12 75%
including the bottom three: 13 for 16 81%