American Idol - Weeks 4 and 5

I've gone 0-2 in picking the losers so far since the top 12 started. And only 2 for 6 in picking the bottom three. Kristi Lee was my pick to leave both the top 12 and top 11. Instead, David Hernandez left last week and Overmyer left this week. They were NOT in my bottom three for either week. Hernandez could sing, even if he did overdo it from time to time and Overmyer was nothing if not for a little different. We won't get anything different or better out of Kristi Lee, Michael Johns, Brooke White, Castro, Ramiele, basically any of them. I had it as a three horse race between Cook, Carly, and David Archuleta, but since Carly was in the bottom three this week, it's evident that no one is safe.

Something seems fishy. It is unlikely, at best, that someone would be the last person to stay three weeks running, especially when the bottom three have been different every week! I've read some articles purporting various conspiracy theories. The two most prevalent: David H was let into the top 12 because of his talent, but then was kicked off because of his past; Overmyer was kicked off just before the top 10 because they (the AI producers) didn't want her on the tour. Both of these are plausible, and I think maybe explain what I see as people in the middle of the pack getting kicked off or ending up in the bottom three.

New Style?
My power poll worked well during the Top 24. Even if I started over after the top 12, I still only would have predicted Kristi Lee in the bottom three. We'll see, I'll start keeping track both using the rankings in the top 24 and a new ranking just using the top 12 ratings.

No predictions, just the facts

Picking the losers (top 12):
0 for 2 0%
bottom three: 2 for 6 33%

Picking the losers (overall):
8 for 14 57%
bottom three: 15 for 22 68%

AI Season 7 - paired to the top 12

All in all, not too terribly surprising. I called Kady and Asia'h getting voted off, and it wasn't hard to see that Luke M. should be getting kicked off. The spot that I struggled the most was between Chiekieze and Danny. What's most surprising is that I'm disappointed with Danny leaving the show. He was a little over the top, but the sass and back talking he gave to Simon was a little entertaining. He wasn't a bad singer, either. Chiekieze advanced based on the strength of Week 2's performance.

I've got Carly as the overall favorite (so she gets tagged on posts from now on). She's a good enough singer that she'll give above-average performances every week, no matter the genre and she'll really connect with a song every couple of weeks or so (as she did with Crazy on You). David A. is the favorite for the boys, but David Cook is very close behind. Michael Johns bumped up three spots amongst the boys. No one really fell all that much and no one really got hosed.

It will be interesting to see how the top 12 pan out. I'm excited that the girls will be performing with the boys. The general thought is that the boys are stronger than the girls and I think that will be very evident next week. Looks like one person will be kicked off next week. Kristi Lee Cook needs to have a good performance, I think she's in trouble.

Picking the losers:
8 for 12 75%
including the bottom three: 13 for 16 81%

AI Season 7 - 8 girls

The girls just haven't been getting any better. The pack here is scrunched together, too. Questionable song choices are hurting some good singers and "good" choices are helping some of the poorer singers.

1. Overmeyer - gave her top spot because the judges did
2. Carly* - the best singer, I'd agree she still hasn't found a song she can hang her hat on
3. Syesha* - pretty good singer, I think she's found her niche (Alicia Keys-ish), which should do well later on in the competition
4. Brooke White - weak singer, good song choice again
5. Ramiele - 2nd best singer, hasn't been picking good songs
6. Kristi Lee - judges are contriving her country gimmick
7. Asia'h
8. Kady

Kady should have been voted off last week. She basically had a second chance, and she squandered it. Asia'h isn't terrible, but I don't think she's going to get any better. I'd rather hear someone with a bigger voice, like Ramiele, sing some Whitney. I think Kristi Lee gets another week (and a makeover) to fit into the role of the country songstress. Otherwise, I think everyone is safe.

Idol Season 7 - 8 guys

Everyone was pretty close this week. No one stood out. Nobody was really terrible, either. It's going to be a close vote this week. Still confused by the song choices, there's got to be some better songs. Cook did something unique, which definitely helps. Michael sang INXS, which is his (very small) niche.

1. David Cook* - this week helped him
2. Michael - this week helped him a lot, but i don't feel like he's getting any better
3. David Archuleta* - came back to the pack a little, still the favorite
4. Castro - judges loved it, but it was a strange song. don't think the public will appreciate it quite as much
5. David H - Celine?
6. Danny
7. Luke M
8. Chiekieze

Luke should finally be done this week. I think Chiekieze is probably out. Danny is close, too.

American Idol - Season 7 - Four more voted off

Well, I'm surprised. Even though I picked two of the four voted off, I was caught off guard by the other two. I had Alaina and Robbie right in the middle of the pack. Kady (Houston native) just barely made it by in the bottom 3, which is where I had her. And Luke M. made it through again when I didn't think he should have. Looks like he was in the bottom three as well.

David Archuleta remains the overall favorite. After two weeks, I think Carly is the favorite for the girls. Brooke White was the big gainer over last week, bumping up 5 spots amongst the girls. Alexandrea was the biggest fall, dropping from where I had her as the 3rd best performance last week to being voted off (9th place) this week. Hosed was Alaina, who I had as the 4th best girl before she got voted off.

There's still a lot Idol left for the year and Idol voters can be fickle.

Picking the Losers:
5 for 8 62.5%
including bottom three: 7 for 10 70%

American Idol Season 7 - 10 chicks

Well, the 10 girls were tough to rank, but not because they were good. The first two started off strong, but it quickly got worse after that. It's going to be a while before we get strong performances out of all the girls. The boys sound pretty good comparatively. Again, these decade weeks should be lending themselves to the girls. A * is a lock to advance, anyone marked with an -x is in the danger zone (note how many more x's there are)

1. Carly* - good performance, got after it, didn't look real comfortable, though
2. Syesha* - better than the judges gave her credit for. could get really annoying though
3. Alaina
4. Ramiele - bad song for her, but she's definitely in the top 3 for female contenders
5. Brooke White -x - good song choice, mostly because she looks like 70's Carly Simon
6. Kristi Lee Cook -x - didn't think she was good enough to advance, but then four other people performed
7. Overmeyer -x
8. Kady -x
9. Asia'h -x - very, very bad, but I think she'll move on
10. Lushington -x - was stoked for some Chicago. she picked the lamest Chicago song ever. I thought they only came out with good songs in the 70's. Turns out I was wrong

Based on my own American Idol - Season 7 Power Poll, I think Kady and Alexandrea are out this week but wouldn't be surprised if Kristi Lee Cook or Overmeyer got bumped.

American Idol - 10 dudes

The guys started really slow last night. There wasn't a standout performance until David Hernandez halfway through the show. Four out of the last five were really good. Again, the * designates a J.Meeks lock to advance.

1. David Archuleta* - Still the favorite. Really, really good rendition of Imagine. People always sing it, but he made it his own. He's had the two best performances so far.
2. David Hernandez* - I've liked him from the beginning. Simon's criticisms have really driven him.
3. Chiekieze* - I liked his performance last week. We'll see how he does after the decade weeks.
4. David Cook*
5. Noriega - again, unfortunately, he passes to next week
6. Robbie
7. Castro - I like the guitar, not the strongest performance, but he'll pass on, too
8. Michael Johns - he's middle of the pack at best. seems to have lots of potential. he'll get by on that for at least one more week, should do well if next week is the 80s (INXS!!!)
9. Yeager - didn't think he did that bad of a job, judges harsh and he was towards the bottom last week
10. Luke M. - weird performance. I had him at the very bottom last week. its over this week.

American Idol Season 7 - First Vote Off

I did pretty well. 3 of my bottom 4 were voted off. And the one dude who wasn't in my bottom four was in my danger zone. Obviously, I have an eye for this. Or I've just watched way to much AI in the past. No surprises yet, either good or bad. The group song sucked - which is to be expected. Don't know what next week's theme is. Look for David A. to do well again, look for David Hernandez to get a little more face time. I think Alexandrea Lushington is one to watch, even if she isn't the most talented. Again, I say the top of the dude pool is strong, even if the girls might be a little deeper top to bottom. If we're counting advances, I'm 19 of 20. Should hav started an AI pool.

American Idol Season 7 - 12 Girls

The girls started out slow. They picked up towards the end. Same format as with the guys. No one really stood out. There's a lot of potential with the girls, but the top guys had better performances than the girls - not good, considering the genre nights generally lend themselves better to the females.

Ramiele*
Carly
Alexandrea Lushington* - fun performance, gets props for singing Amy Winehouse during Hollywood week
Asia'h
Syesha - maybe thinks she's better than she is
Alaina Whitaker
Kady Malloy
Overmeyer
Brooke White
Kristy Lee Cook
Joanne
Amy Davis - yawn

American Idol Season 7 - 12 guys

For the real American Idol fans, the season has finally begun! Just got a chance to watch the 12 guys perform for this season's American Idol. You can find recaps anywhere else on the internet, so I'll just drop my rankings from the first show. Looks like 10 will advance, and I didn't see 10 worth advancing. With the rankings, some comments. Also, the * designates a J.Meeks lock to advance.

1. David Archuleta* - got after it while singing, immediately knew he didn't nail it, favorite so far
2. D. Hernandez
3. Cook - good take on familiar song
4. Jason Castro* - AI finally caught on to let people play an instrument. They probably wish they would have with Chris Daughtry.
5. Robbie
6. Michael Johns - he thinks he's a little better than he is. liked the beginning of the song, lost intensity/focus
7. Chiekieze
8. D. Noriega - unfortunately he'll move on
9. Colton - ditto
10. J. Yeager
11. Garrett - not good
12. Luke M. - didn't even listen to the whole song