Will your 401(k) be enough for retirement?

Assume you need to replace 85% of your pre-retirement income. Where will it come from? According to this article from the Wall Street Journal, Social Security will account for 40% of the post-retirement income for those currently eligible for retirement. No one under 30 (under 40?, under 50?) should plan for this to be available. That means all of post-retirement income will have to come from pensions and self-directed investments. Pensions are hit-or-miss and are likely to become less and less prevalent. This leaves 401(k) and IRA.

I'll assume a salary increase of 3% a year, which does not include promotions (but, unfortunately, is less than the average inflation of 3.31% over the last 30 years). Your salary will be 242% of what it is now. If you have 30 years until retirement, you'll have to have a post-retirement income of just over twice your current income. Assuming, as the WSJ article did, a 6% post-retirement return, you'll need a retirement account worth 34 times your current income.

The article referenced above recommends contributing 12 to 15% into the 401(k) including employer match. The average return for high-risk stocks (which you should be in if you've got 30 years to retirement) are just under 10%, but that's probably unrealistic. If you invest in mutual funds, which is predominant in 401(k) plans, you'll give back 1-2% a year in management fees. Let's assume 7% a year growth. Including the 3% salary growth, investing 12% a year in the 401(k) will result in 16.5 times your current salary in 30 years. Investing 15% results in about 20.8 times your current salary. In other words, your 401(k) will only provide 50 to 60% of your retirement needs with a 12 - 15% contribution.

Where does the rest of the money come from? Consider a Roth IRA. The current contribution limit is $5000/yr (not guaranteed to continue at this rate). Using the above 7% return on aggressive stocks, the Roth IRA will be worth approximately $500,000 after 30 years of maximum contributions. This number is fixed, so how much this will contribute to your post-retirement income depends on your current salary. The multiple of current salary could be anywhere from 5 (current salary is $100k/yr) to 10 or more ($50k/yr or less), which would account for 15 to 30% of retirement income.

Adding the recommended 401(k) contributions and the Roth IRA, these can account for anywhere between 65 and 90% of your retirement needs. This obviously doesn't add up to enough. If your employer has a pension plan, you can add that by using the projected payout amount divided by your current salary. That number divided by 34 is approximately the percent of your retirement the pension will cover. If you don't have a pension plan, investing more in the 401(k) plan is a way to make up the difference. Every 1% increase in your 401(k) contribution should add another 4% to your retirement account after 30 years.

These numbers aren't exact. A slight change in any of the assumed percentages could make a drastic change in the retirement account value, especially over 30 years. A main assumption made was the 6% return on an account post-retirement. This number may be high. Taking a lower assumption of 5%, you'll need 41 times your current salary (20% more) at the time of retirement. Using the current CD rates of 1.25%, you'll need more. Much more. Digging into your principal during retirement can make up for the expected earnings but the money will only last a finite amount of time.

The take-away from this exercise should be that without Social Security, everyone will need to make up a substantial portion of their retirement. The recommended 401(k) contribution, even paired with maximum contributions to an IRA won't be enough. Additional savings needs to come from increased 401(k) contributions, or a company pension.

Funny Links

Sometimes the least expected are the ones that might know the most about coaching searches. If you want to know all about Oregon's search for a new basketball coach just ask this girl...

http://www.oregonlive.com/sports/oregonian/john_canzano/index.ssf/2010/03/canzano_ducks_coaching_search.html

LSU decided to have some April Fool's Day fun which prompted some thinking. What would an ISU field of red and yellow look like?! It would probably be pretty ugly. LSU's new purple field doesn't look too bad though if you are into that sort of thing. I like the quote from the strength and conditioning coach.

http://www.lsusports.net/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=5200&ATCLID=204919830



This is one of the best April Fool's Day jokes since the "Left Handed Whopper"

http://www.prnewswire.co.uk/cgi/news/release?id=39523

100 Pushups

I am going to do the hundredpushup.com program. The goal at the end of the program is that you can do 100 consecutive pushups. My initial test resulted in 26 consecutive pushups. We will see how it goes.

MLB Predictions

Here are my annual predictions for the upcoming year. Unfortunately, I am not as optimistic about the Cubs this year as I have in the past.

Standings:

NL East
Phillies
Braves
Marlins
Mets
Nationals

NL Central
Cardinals
Cubs
Brewers
Reds
Astros
Pirates

NL West
Rockies
Giants
Dodgers
Diamondbacks
Padres

NL Wild Card
Braves

AL East
Yankees
Rays
Red Sox
Blue Jays
Orioles

AL Central
White Sox
Twins
Tigers
Indians
Royals

AL West
Angels
Rangers
Mariners
A's

AL Wild Card: Tampa Rays

NL Champion: Phillies
AL Champion: Yankees

WS Champion: Yankees (I hope this is not true)

NL MVP: Pujols
AL MVP: Mauer

NL ROY: Stephen Strasburg
AL ROY: Brian Matusz

NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay
AL Cy Young: Jake Peavy

Mack Brown Gets More Green

Texas just made Mack Brown the top paid coach among NCAA men's coaches. They decided to give him a ho-hum 2 million dollar raise up to 5 million dollars. Is he the best coach in America? Certainly not. Has he had the most success? Certainly not. Do I have a problem with this raise? Well, here is a case for what Texas was thinking...
Texas will be playing for its 2nd BCS title in 5 years. That is pretty good but not as good as Urban Meyer's run. The most impressive part of Brown's resume is 9 straight 10 win seasons. Most coaches kill to have 9 total 10 win seasons. The biggest part of that is in most years 10 wins will get you a BCS bowl and that means loads of money for Texas and the Big 12. It is very evident that college sports is just as much business as it is providing an opportunity for student-athletes. Does Texas really think he is the best college in the NCAA like their AD has said? Maybe, but thats only because he brings in loads of money.
Brown started at 750,000 dollars in 1997, his first year on the job. When he came to Texas their football revenue were 21.3 million dollars. They currently stand at 87.5 million dollars. Texas sees Mack Brown as the CEO of their football company and looking at the results he has done a good job. The biggest reason I surprisingly don't completely disagree with this raise? His salary is paid entirely with athletic department revenues. No state tax money is used. If Texas sees him as the guy bringing in the money, with his clock management aside, then I suppose it is smart for them reward him. However, do you think Brown would honestly ever go anywhere if you didn't give him a raise?

Some nuggets of fun for your enjoyment...

Snow Days, Marathon, and Boredom

Having a snow day before winter break is never a good sign. It looks like we will have at least two this year. Yes, I realize this pushes the school year back if we go over three. This may push my work schedule back into June, but to all of you that say “have fun going extra at the end of the year”, I say “have fun working the entire summer!” When you are working in July, I will be golfing and sleeping. Or maybe I will be watching baseball, traveling or enjoying more golf and sleeping. I could also spend eight hours a day thinking about getting stuff done, but having no reason to do so. I may be working into June, but have fun working, commuting and going to school tomorrow because I will be watching my soap operas once again and enjoying another day off. In June? You will still be working. In July? You will still be working. Most of August? You will still be working.

I have decided to run a marathon. Another teacher at my school talked me into it and I decided to do it. It will suck. It will be painful. Hopefully it will be worth it. It has always been something I wanted to do and this seems like the right time. It may mean taking it easy some Saturday nights so I can run 10+ miles on Sunday, but that won’t be the worst case scenario for me. It is a 26 week program (yes business majors that is half a year). It involves cross-training, timed runs and long runs. It started Monday and the race will take place on June 6^th. This training will help me beat Jeremy’s butt in our “Houston to Marion” challenge. It is a one year challenge from Thanksgiving to Thanksgiving to see if we can run, bike, swim, ellpitacize, etc. our way from Houston to Marion (1128 miles). I am currently in the lead by a decent margin.

I have learned (in the middle of watching soap operas) that there is some interesting crap on the internet. You want to know what Rahshon Clark is up to these days? Click this link: http://www.keflavik.is/Karfan/Mfl_karla/ . Best part? His teammate Halldor Halldorson. I am not sure what kind of team this is but I hope it pays well. He kind of reminds me of the old guy from Dodgeball. Sorry, I cannot find a picture of him, but I believe the only difference is their chest size. Good old Halldor. Best of luck to you Rahshon in your current endeavors.

I have also been doing a lot of research in getting down to Arizona for the Cyclones game in Tempe. There are obviously several options. Most of them are rather expensive, mainly the ones that include flying down there. The Alumni Association decided to put together a trip for those interested (which is already sold out). The price for a quad-occupancy trip per person was $1,421! That got me to thinking. What kind of a bowl party could you throw for $1,421? Here is my bowl party:

40” Samsung 1080p LCD HDTV -$700 (which you get to keep by the way)

16 gallons of fun -$100 (which you get to enjoy by the way)

2 liters of Mexican fun- $20 (Price of lime and salt included!)

Saucy Southerners equipped with regular and spicy BBQ sauce along with three sides $120 (enough for 20 people!)

Oh wait the game is on NFL Network…

That’s why I decided to include:

12 months (3 months free) Direct TV package, 150+channels, HD, free installition, etc. - $360

Cyclone Insight Bowl T-Shirt: $20

There is now $100 to spend…

Season Tickets to ISU football 2010 $99

With the last and final two dollars I will put them on a parlay with every possible situation in the bowl game with a chance to have this all paid for.

That sounds like one heck of a bowl party. Keep in mind, that is only the price of one person to go. You could have four times the fun with the real price for four people to attend! With that being said I think I am going to find a way to drive down there and be there in person. Although having one heck of a bowl party sure does sound enticing!

You can look forward to more posts as long as this snow keeps falling!

The Waiting Game

With Kansas' loss to Missouri, ISU is assured a bowl berth. It looks like either Shreveport or Houston unless a Nebraska upset over Texas occurs (Insight then). Most have all signs pointing to Shreveport. Word of mouth through a donor at the basketball game tonight says Pollard is on record as saying the INDY bowl wants TAMU not ISU. This might be a result of their strong showing against Texas. It is still up in the air, but at least it is not up in the air as to if the Cyclones will go or not. A year ago today I was not thinking of a bowl game this year, so I am not going to complain about which bowl ISU goes to or does not go to. At this point I would like to go to Houston for selfish reasons and I don't need to lose money in Shreveport at the casinos. The biggest impact of this bowl berth is the extra month of practice for the Cyclones. It will be huge for the players in the first year of new schemes. Look for them to be really prepared against whoever, whenever they play. Their opponent will be just as prepared, but it certainly will be fun to see ISU bowling around the holidays!

How November 2006 Changed ISU Football

On November 26, 2006 it was expected ISU was going to name Brian Kelly their new head football coach. It seemed logical at the time. He would be getting a 900,000 dollar raise. He was successful at Grand Valley State and Central Michigan. The other known interviews were Jay Norvell, OC at Oklahoma, and Jim Harbaugh. Pollard came out of left field and introduced Gene Chizik as the new head football coach. Meanwhile, Brian Kelly was snatched up by Cincinatti, and Harbaugh caught on with Stanford.

Brian Kelly

Kelly has taken Cincy from 19-17 in the 3 years previous to him taking over to 30-6 in the three years since, with three games left in this season. That was quite the turnaround.

Jim Harbaugh

Harbaugh came from a program that didn't offer scholarships to guiding Stanfords football program. Their record in the 3 years prior to Harbaugh--10-24. Their record since: 15-18. Keep in mind Stanford was 1-11 the year before Harbaugh took over. He also has two victories over Top 10 opponents (at USC, vs Oregon).

Jay Norvell is still searching for a coaching job at this point.

Kelly=+11 wins and counting
Harbaugh= +5 wins and counting


Now, Gene Chizik.

In the two years before Gene got here McCarney went 11-13, including a bowl trip. That is a little better than most people think. Chizik was brought in and went 5-19 in his two years. That is a MINUS 6 win differential. What a hire.

I think people thought ISU football was in a lot worse of a place when Chizik took over. People failed to realize that they were one year removed from a bowl game.

If Pollard had gotten it right...

ISU may have been coming off a bowl trip.
People might be wanting our head coach for the right reasons.
ISU WOULDN'T have wasted the last two years.

Did Pollard get it right? (Part Two)

At the moment it looks like Pollard got this one right. Rhoads already has a +3 win differential, among the best in the nation. Another candidate, Turner Gill has cooled off at Buffalo and isn't quite the coup he was a year ago. Most importantly Rhoads looks like he wants to be here.

Looking back to November 26th, 2006 it is funny to think how much one date could have changed ISU football so much. Kelly had his bags packed and thought he had a contract in hand. Instead he shipped his bags and his coaching ability for the Big East and now appears to have first dibs on whatever coaching job he so chooses. Can you imagine what it would have been like to have Notre Dame trying to steal away our coach?!

Moral of the story:

ISU appears to have finally gotten their hands on a good coach. Does he have the ability to make them more than mediocre? We will see. Pollard put this program back two years with one decision. If it turns out he was wrong on this one, he needs to be out the door as well.

Cyclone Football

Cyclone Football

A lot has happened since the last time I posted about ISU football. ISU pulled off their first win in Lincoln since 1977 and the Cyclones got to within one game of bowl eligibility! I would like to take a moment to recap what I saw the last couple of weeks and take a look ahead at what might happen the rest of the season.

The Past:

ISU made great strides the last several weeks ending three streaks: Conference losing streak, conference road losing streak and losing streak at Nebraska. Paul Rhoads has released several demons surrounding ISU football so far. With one more win he will end a streak of losing seasons dating back to 2005. ISU’s wins against Baylor and Nebraska proved they are relevant in the North once again, although that is not saying a whole lot. Considering ISU played without their top two offensive players made it all the more impressive. They players are buying into Rhoads’ system and it seems to be working. What I also learned was ISU has a long way to go, which is about as obvious as Charles Barkley’s gambling problem. The Cyclones going to a bowl game was a long shot before the season and it looks like a real possibility now. The Cyclones are two plays away from leading the Big XII North. It will be interesting to see if they continue to play at a high, by their standards, level of play the rest of the season. It starts with a ranked Oklahoma State squad.

Present:

Iowa State gets a chance to play on ABC, although its regional coverage, against a ranked opponent at home. Can Rhoads exercise another demon? It will be easier with the return of Arnaud, Stephens and a healthy Robinson. This game really comes down to the defense. They are going to have to at least slow down the OSU offense. If they can play opportunistic defense and be plus two in turnover margin they should be in good position. If not, they will be in trouble. It was very surprising to me that ISU was only a 7.5 underdog. To be honest, I am picking OSU to cover in my spread pool. This would be another great win for Paul Rhoads and could keep the momentum rolling and keep them in position for the Big XII North title. Honestly, I don’t think it is going to happen, but I am certainly hoping for it.

Future:

Looking into my crystal ball I see the Cyclones finishing at 6-6 with a big losses to Oklahoma State and Missouri and a narrow victory over Colorado. That should get them into a bowl game especially if Kansas State fails to get to 7 wins, which they need to become bowl, eligible. Six wins could put them anywhere from the Independence or Texas bowl to the Humanitarian or New Mexico Bowl. None of those sound to appealing, but to think the Cyclones started the season on a ten game losing streak, it would be quite the feat. That is all for right now…Go Cyclones!

Quote of the Day

On PTI (Pardon the Interruption) 10/12

Wilbon: Today is Columbus Day Tony. In your opinion what is the worst holiday in America?

Tony: Well Wilbon I'm going to tell you. It's in St. Louis and its called Matt Holliday.


Maybe you had to watch it live but it was hilarious.

Cyclones Playing in December?

Basketball season is right around the corner, but the question that remains is if the football team will join the basketball team competing in December. The Cyclones are possibly a blocked PAT and another missed PAT and another missed PAT AND a botched field goal attempt from being 5-1. That is a bad case of playing the "What If?" game, but truth be told those are the mistakes keeping them from a 5-1 start and a chance to clinch a bowl berth this upcoming Saturday. Standing at 3-3, the Cyclones need to finish 3-3 to go bowling. With that being said there is not a guarantee they will get an invite although I have a hard time believing they wouldn't at least go to the Mediocrity Bowl and play the likes of a 6-6 Navy team or another mid-major. This is what I saw on Saturday.

The Good:

The offense looked great. Herman was in a zone and a rhythm calling plays and this was due in large part to Austen Arnaud making accurate throws. I don't know the last time I have watched an ISU game and seriously thought that ISU would score every time they touched the ball. Alexander Robinson is a great back and could be looking at some Big XII postseason honors if he continues to put up performances like he did Saturday (152 yds rushing, 52 receiving, 2 TD). Hopefully he can keep playing through his pulled groin, because he is the key to ISU's success. Arnaud had that level of confidence back that he showed toward the end of last year. It is his 3rd offensive system in 4 years and he appears to be settling into this one after a mediocre, at best, week last week. If Herman and the Cyclone offense really are starting to hit their stride, ISU could pull out 3 more victories. KU's defense isn't that good, but when you put up over 500 total yards of offense I don't care who you are playing, that is impressive.

The Bad:

The defense struggled again. This really was no surprise. To be honest, the Cyclones can survive with the defense residing in this portion of the post-game comments. Kansas has a stellar offense with an excellent QB and talented WR's. ISU's defense was opportunistic, forcing punts at crucial times. The back-breaker was giving up a TD drive with 2 min left in the 1st half to make it 20-12. If there are any positives to take from a an effort that yielded 41 points it would be the effort in getting KU off the field after ISU made it 41-36 with 2 min left, giving the offense a chance to win the game. The DB's still are taking horrible angles to the ball and flat out getting beat. They aren't helped out at all by a lack of a pass rush.

The Ugly:

The special teams once again cost ISU a Big XII victory. It is common occurrence now for ISU to have a horrible kicking game. ISU has a great punter and their kick coverage units have been doing a very solid job. There is no excuse for missed/blocked PAT's or mishandled holds. ISU needs to win a close game like this to get this turnaround going in the right direction. They are knocking at the door, but their kicking game is keeping them from opening it. ISU has now lost out on two appearances in the Big XII title game and most recently a chance at a road upset because they can't kick the ball through the uprights from 30 yards and under.


Rest of the year:

John Walters said over the air that he doesn't think there is a game left on the schedule that ISU can't win. I tend to agree with this statement, although I think its much more accurate to say there isn't a game left on the schedule that ISU can't lose for themselves. Getting three more wins will be tough-making the recent close losses that much tougher. Saturday is a must win for the psyche of the club. I just hope the players sense how close they are and don't throw in the towel this early in the year.

Pessimistic Prediction:

Baylor-L, @Neb-L, @TAMU-L, OK St-L, Colorado-W, @Mizzou-L

Realistic Prediction:

Baylor-W, @Neb-L, @TAMU-L, Ok St-L, Colorado-W, @Mizzou-L

Optimistic Prediction

Baylor-W, @Neb-L, @TAMU-TU, OkSt- TU, Colorado-W, @Mizzou-L

Sun Bowl vs Arizona

If Dez Bryant is out for the year I could see ISU beating either TAMU on the road or beating the Cowboys at home. None of that will matter if ISU doesn't win on Saturday. I agree with Walters if the offense keeps it up there isn't a game left on the schedule that ISU can't win.

Cyclone Football

After two straight victories over "powerhouses" Kent State and Army, ISU is looking at the possibility of a bowl game. Yes, I said it-a bowl game! Now, going into the season I thought there was no way, and to be honest there still should be a lot of doubt in everyone's minds. ISU was very close to finishing the non-conference 3-1 last year only to drop every single Big 12 game last year. The Cyclones must go 3-5 in conference to go to a bowl game. The injury of Robert Griffin from Baylor just made the Cyclones trip to a bowl game, possibly in Houston, much more possible. Their three most likely victories come from K-State, Baylor and Colorado, all of which are having down years (Baylor was looking toward a bowl but should struggle without Griffin). Saturday will tell us a lot about the 2009 Cyclones. K-State is not a powerhouse, but is a team that they should beat which is something that ISU has done this year. The biggest change I have noticed from last year is that ISU has come out and acted like and performed like they are the better team when they are playing a lesser opponent. It is a step in the right direction. Three straight 100-yard games from A-Rob is awesome. Austen Arnaud has only been sacked twice this season...once again awesome. The Cyclones have the snowball rolling in the right direction and a 4-1 start would get some much needed momentum going into the conference season. Once again, we will have to wait until Saturday to see how real this ISU team is. The atmosphere should be awesome, especially considering it could be the Big 12 North "Battle to Stay Out of the Cellar". My prediction: A-Rob will gain another 100 yards rushing although ISU will not put up the 30 points they have been putting up. ISU 20 K-State 13 (subject to change)

Football

Cyclones- I am not sure what that was on Saturday, but it didn't look much like football. Arnaud made horrible decisions and in the spread the quarterback needs to make excellent decisions. The defense was put in tough spots by the offense so it was hard to tell how well they really did. This weekend will be a measuring stick for 'Clones and a must-win if they have any hope of six wins and a bowl game. If they play like they did Saturday they will get smoked just as bad. I'm guessing they play better and I'm going to go out on a big limb and say they snap their horrendous road losing streak. I honestly think they have a better chance winning this game coming off a loss than coming off a win. Arnaud will throw for a couple TD's and a couple INT's. If the INT's come first ISU has no shot. Prediction: ISU:27 Kent State: 24

Bears- It looked like Arnaud suited up for the Bears Sunday night. With as bad as Cutler played it is amazing the Bears still were in a position and should have won that game Sunday night. The Packers played well (much better than the Bears), but the defense needs to hold onto that lead with 2 minutes left. Turner got away from the game plan that allowed them to compete with anemic quarterback play. GIVE THE BALL TO FORTE!!! He was their entire offense last year and now Cutler comes and he is nowhere to be found. Cutler should be an improvement from last year in the respect that when they do throw Cutler will stretch the field. The Bears don't have the receivers to throw the ball 50 times per game. The Bears toughest part of the schedule is their first three games. The have the defending Super Bowl Champions coming to Soldier Field and then they travel to Seattle. There is a very good chance they start the season 0-3 and the Packers and Vikings start the season 3-0. The schedule will even out throughout the course of the year, but with Urlacher out for the year the last thing Chicago needs is an 0-3 start to destroy any confidence that is left over. The Bears need to win one of these next two games. Wishful Prediction: Bears 19 Steelers 17

Thoughts from College Football:

There are a number of teams starting off hot and coming out of nowhere with young players. Michigan, Miami and UCLA are familiar teams with unusual low expectations from some that are exceeding them right now. Michigan and Miami have young QB's that are playing very well. Jacory Harris from Miami has vastly improved from last year and looks like he could be a real good player for a couple of years. IF Miami finishes this brutal stretch undefeated look for Harris to be a Heisman candidate.

Big XII Thought:

Baylor will be going to a bowl game this year. Coming off a victory at Wake Forest and now coming home to Connecticut they should have victories over some decent competition and will be prepared for the Big XII season. They will get 3-4 wins in conference and be traveling to a bowl game for the first time in awhile. Congrats to Art Briles.

NFL:

The league is competitive and that is why it is so fun to watch. Outside of the Lions and Rams, any team could win any week. MNF looked like it was a doubleheader snoozer and then turned into two great games. The Bills and Raiders showed signs off life and both should have had victories.

Most Impressive Teams:
Jets
Philly
Dallas
*I cannot include any team that plays the Lions-Sorry Saints

Disappointing Teams
Texans
Cardinals
Panthers
*Lions-you are exempt from this list

With the 16 game season, don't expect the same teams that are hot right now to be hot in four weeks or eight weeks and vice versa. I'm very interested to see which teams backup their first performances of the year, which ones take a step back and which ones make a statement in the second week.

*The Lions will win a game this year. Look for the game against the Packers to be close. I'll be rooting for them.

Week Five

238.6-Same as last week. Staying home this weekend should help.

Week Four

On Wednesday I was 238.6, Thursday 238.0. After four weeks I have lost 7 pounds. I like this pace and I'm going to try and keep it up. Hopefully the tailgating doesn't start to hurt me.

Week Three

On Wednesday I weighed in at 241.4 which would have been a gain of 1.4 lbs thanks to a trip to Ames. On Thursday I was able to get down to 238.6, which is what I am going to use as my weekly weight. That brings me to 1.4 lbs lost for the week and 6.4 lbs lost total in 3 weeks. I had a physical Wednesday afternoon and apparently I am 60 lbs overweight. I am eating small meals and it seems to be helping.

Week Two

New Weight-240.0lbs....a loss of 2.2lbs from 242.2lbs. I did pretty well with my food in Ames and still enjoyed some beverages.

Week One

242.2 lbs...A loss of 2.8 lbs. It helps having a job and not snacking all day long. I'm going to Ames this weekend and I need to at least not eat horrible.

A Smaller Me

With the Cubs tanking, I need a new hobby. Back to the drawing board to see if I can lose some of this weight. Going back to teach at my middle school and having teachers tell me I look the same as I did in 5-8th grade is not a good thing...I was fat. I'm going to try to do one pound per week. My trouble, like usual, will be tailgating season. Hopefully I can get some momentum heading into the fall. Current weight as of Wednesday(my check-in day) was 245 lbs. I have taken a picture of myself, but luckily for you my batteries ran out and I can't post at this point.

Cubs Postseason Chances

With 106 games down and 56 games to go, it is no longer a marathon it is a sprint. Although the Cubs remain in a tie for first place in the Central Division with the Cardinals, they have a two-game advantage in the loss column, meaning they control their own destiny. They are two games back of the SF Giants in the Wild Card, with the Rockies in between heading into a four game series against the Cubs this weekend. The goal for the Cubs is not just to make it to the playoffs, but do something once they get there. Here are some issues to consider for the last two months of the season.

Issue #1

Closing Time

Kevin Gregg sucks. Marmol is better in the 8th and Angel Guzman is the most dependable arm in the bullpen. With the addition of Grabow and Gorzelanny the Cubs now have 2 more lefties. Here is something I think the Cubs, if nothing else, just at least consider to solidify the 9th inning. RICH HARDEN. Hear me out. Rich Harden has swing-and-miss stuff, dominating most of the time. His problem in the rotation? He strikes out so many batters he is at 100 pitches after the 5th or 6th inning. Let Gorzelanny fill-in as the 5th starter and if he proves he can't do it move him to the bullpen and have Marshall fill-in that spot. Neither of them would have to start in the postseason. The rotation would then be Zambrano, Dempster, Lilly, Wells, Gorz. Wells is by-far the most reliable starter this season and I hope he gets a start in the playoffs if they get there. So food for the thought: Harden or Dempster as a closer for the rest of the year? Keep in mind the Cubs are 51-4 when having a lead going into the 9th inning, but it is a problem that hasn't hurt them....yet.

Issue #2

Right Field

Milton Bradley is not hitting. Jake Fox is. Now this would work well if MB was hitting from the left side and not the right, but its the opposite. Jake Fox needs a chance to be in the lineup as a regular for at least a week to prove himself as a defender. Yes, defense is important but the Cubs need to put runs on the board. Fox has the same HR's and RBI's in half as many at-bats. The guy can hit and he needs to have a bigger role down the stretch. There is talk of giving him practice at 2nd base in the Instructional League after the year...that sounds scary and if he's going to play 2nd why did you get rid of DeRosa?!

Issue #3

Catcher

Soto is coming back Friday to provide an offensive lift. However, Koyie Hill has played 26 straight games and over 220 innings since July 7th or 36 more than the next catcher (Russell Martin). Thats four games more. The Cubs are 28-17 with him behind the plate. He's throwing out 44 percent of runners, the best in the majors. The Cubs starters are 12-2 since the All-Star break. Catcher is one spot that can be sacrificed offensively for strong defense. He needs to get at least 40 percent of the starts down the stretch. Soto can swing the stick, but if he struggles at the plate there is no reason for Hill to ride the pine.

Issues Resolved:

Soriano hitting 6th seems to have helped him out. He's hitting roughly .340 since the switch and Kosuke hitting leadoff has been a pleasant surprise with an OBP close to .400 which is where you want a leadoff hitter. ARam coming back has been a huge lift and DLee is swinging the stick. I think the Cubs will be fine down the stretch and the Cubs will prevail. The Cardinals are a very good team with one hell of an offense. If their SP's can pitch average they will be a team to be reckoned with.

Prediction:

Cubs by 1 game in the Central
Cards tie Giants for WC--Cards win one-game playoff